---
title: "Risk of New Eruptions - Mount Vesuvius Online"
description: "Is Mount Vesuvius likely to erupt again? Learn about its current green alert level, INGV monitoring, volcanic hazards and the Vesuvius emergency plan."
url: "https://vesuvionline.net/en/geo-en/risk-of-new-eruptions"
date: "2026-08-10T07:43:33+00:00"
language: "en-GB"
---

#  Risk of a New Eruption of Mount Vesuvius

Mount Vesuvius is an **active volcano**, although it has not erupted since March 1944.

Today the volcano is in a state of quiescence and is continuously monitored by the **INGV – Osservatorio Vesuviano**, which operates a network of instruments around the Somma–Vesuvius volcanic complex.

An important distinction should be made between an active volcano and an imminent eruption: the fact that Vesuvius may erupt again in the future does **not** mean that an eruption is currently approaching.

At the time of this update, Mount Vesuvius is at **green alert level**, meaning that the monitored parameters remain within the values associated with its ordinary background activity.

## Is Mount Vesuvius still active?

Yes.

Mount Vesuvius is considered an active volcano because it has erupted repeatedly during historical times and may erupt again in the future.

Its most recent eruption occurred in **March 1944**.

Since then, the volcano has remained in a state of quiescence.

**[Read about the 1944 eruption of Mount Vesuvius](https://vesuvionline.net/en/history/vesuvius-the-1944-eruption)**

## Is Mount Vesuvius going to erupt soon?

There is currently no scientific evidence indicating that an eruption of Mount Vesuvius is imminent.

The volcano is continuously monitored for changes that could indicate a departure from its normal background state.

However, volcanologists cannot predict the exact date and time of a future eruption years or decades in advance.

Modern monitoring is designed to identify changes in the behaviour of a volcano that may precede renewed activity.

These changes are known as **precursors**.

## Can an eruption be predicted?

Scientists can monitor processes that may indicate increasing volcanic unrest, but volcanic forecasting is not the same as predicting an exact date.

Before an eruption, a volcano may show changes such as:

- increased earthquake activity;
- changes in the location or depth of earthquakes;
- deformation of the ground;
- variations in volcanic gas emissions;
- changes in fumarole temperatures;
- geochemical variations.

A combination of significant changes could lead scientists and Civil Protection authorities to increase the alert level.

However, volcanic unrest does not automatically mean that an eruption will occur.

Periods of increased activity can sometimes decrease again without producing an eruption.

## How is Mount Vesuvius monitored?

Monitoring is carried out by the **Naples section of the INGV – Osservatorio Vesuviano**.

The monitoring system operates continuously and uses several different types of measurements.

### Seismic monitoring

Networks of seismometers detect earthquakes beneath and around Mount Vesuvius.

Small earthquakes occur even during periods of normal volcanic activity.

Scientists therefore examine not only the number of earthquakes but also:

- magnitude;
- depth;
- location;
- frequency;
- changes over time.

### Ground deformation

GPS and other geodetic instruments measure extremely small movements of the volcanic edifice.

Changes in the shape of a volcano can sometimes be associated with pressure developing beneath the surface.

At present, the monitoring networks do not show deformation attributed to an active magmatic source beneath Vesuvius.

### Volcanic gases

Scientists monitor the composition and behaviour of gases released in the crater area.

Changes in gas chemistry can provide information about processes taking place beneath the volcano.

### Temperature

Thermal measurements are carried out in the crater and fumarolic areas.

Temperature changes are analysed together with seismic, geodetic and geochemical observations.

No single measurement is enough on its own: volcanologists interpret all these data together.

## The current alert level

Italy uses four alert levels for Mount Vesuvius:

- **Green – Base**
- **Yellow – Attention**
- **Orange – Pre-alarm**
- **Red – Alarm**

The levels describe the state of the volcano and help determine the actions taken by the Civil Protection system.

### Green

Green is the ordinary background level.

The monitored parameters do not show significant anomalies compared with the normal state of the volcano.

Mount Vesuvius is currently at this level.

### Yellow

A yellow level would indicate changes in some monitoring parameters and increased attention.

It would not necessarily mean that an eruption was imminent.

### Orange

Orange corresponds to a more significant state of volcanic unrest and would activate the pre-alarm phase of Civil Protection planning.

### Red

Red is the highest alert level and corresponds to an alarm situation in which an eruption is considered possible enough to require the preventive evacuation of the population in the red zone.

The transition between alert levels is based on scientific monitoring and evaluations by the competent authorities.

## What does the latest monitoring show?

Current INGV monitoring indicates that Mount Vesuvius remains at its ordinary background level.

In the most recent monthly monitoring available at the time this article was updated:

- seismic activity remained low;
- most recorded earthquakes were very small;
- no ground deformation attributable to magmatic sources was detected;
- crater temperatures remained essentially stable;
- geochemical measurements did not show significant changes.

Visitors should always consult the latest official INGV information if they want the most recent status of the volcano.

## What could happen during a future eruption?

It is impossible to know exactly what form the next eruption will take.

The Civil Protection emergency plan therefore uses a precautionary reference scenario based on a **sub-Plinian eruption**.

This does not mean that the next eruption will necessarily have this size or behaviour.

The possible volcanic hazards include several different phenomena.

## Pyroclastic flows

Pyroclastic flows are among the most dangerous volcanic phenomena.

They are fast-moving mixtures of:

- hot gases;
- ash;
- volcanic fragments.

They can travel rapidly down the slopes of a volcano and are extremely dangerous because of their high temperatures and velocity.

The possibility of pyroclastic flows is one of the main reasons why preventive evacuation is required for the areas closest to Mount Vesuvius if an alarm is declared.

## Ash and lapilli

An explosive eruption may produce a large column of ash and volcanic fragments.

Wind can carry ash many kilometres from the volcano.

Heavy accumulation can:

- damage roofs;
- affect roads and transport;
- reduce visibility;
- interfere with aviation;
- affect electrical and communication systems;
- create respiratory problems.

The areas most affected would depend greatly on the direction and strength of the wind at the time of the eruption.

## Lava flows

Mount Vesuvius has also produced lava flows during many historical eruptions.

Lava generally moves much more slowly than pyroclastic flows, but it can destroy:

- buildings;
- roads;
- agricultural areas;
- infrastructure.

During the 1944 eruption, lava reached and damaged settlements including San Sebastiano al Vesuvio and Massa di Somma.

## Earthquakes

Increasing volcanic unrest can be accompanied by earthquakes.

Earthquakes may result from the movement of fluids and changes in pressure within the volcanic system.

For this reason seismicity is one of the most important parameters continuously monitored by the Osservatorio Vesuviano.

## The Vesuvius Red Zone

The Italian Civil Protection emergency plan identifies a **Red Zone** around Mount Vesuvius.

This is the area where preventive evacuation is considered the only effective way of protecting the population in the event of an alarm.

The Red Zone includes areas that could potentially be affected by pyroclastic flows as well as areas where heavy ash and lapilli accumulation could cause building roofs to collapse.

It currently includes all or part of **25 municipalities** in the provinces of Naples and Salerno.

Around **670,000 people** live within the area covered by the evacuation plan.

## The Yellow Zone

Outside the Red Zone is a much larger **Yellow Zone**.

This area is mainly associated with the potential effects of significant volcanic ash fall.

The Yellow Zone includes **63 municipalities and three districts of the city of Naples**.

Unlike the Red Zone, it would not necessarily be evacuated entirely in advance.

Any protective measures would depend on factors including:

- the size of the eruption;
- wind direction;
- amount of falling ash;
- local conditions.

## What happens if the alert level rises?

An increase in volcanic activity would trigger progressively stronger monitoring and Civil Protection measures.

The response does not begin only when an eruption starts.

Actions are planned in advance according to the alert level and operational phase.

If the situation reaches the **alarm phase**, the population in the Red Zone must leave before the eruption begins.

Preventive evacuation is the central safety measure of the national emergency plan.

## How long would evacuation take?

The national plan is designed around an overall period of approximately **72 hours** for the evacuation process from the Red Zone.

The objective is to move residents away from the areas at greatest risk before an eruption begins.

People can leave using their own transportation or, when necessary, use assisted transportation organized by the authorities.

Municipalities in the Red Zone are also linked with regions and autonomous provinces elsewhere in Italy that would provide accommodation for displaced residents.

## Would tourists also have to leave?

Yes.

Emergency measures concern everyone present in an affected area, not only permanent residents.

Visitors staying in Naples, Pompeii, Herculaneum or towns around Mount Vesuvius should follow the instructions issued by:

- Civil Protection;
- local authorities;
- police and emergency services;
- accommodation providers.

Italy's **IT-alert** public warning system can also be used to send emergency messages directly to mobile phones in affected areas.

## Is it safe to visit Mount Vesuvius?

Under normal conditions and at green alert level, the Great Cone is regularly open to visitors according to the rules of Vesuvius National Park.

The volcanic alert level and the daily opening of the visitor trail are two different matters.

The Great Cone may sometimes close temporarily because of:

- strong wind;
- rain;
- snow or ice;
- fire risk;
- trail conditions;
- other safety reasons.

These short-term closures do not necessarily indicate increased volcanic activity.

**[Mount Vesuvius Visitor Guide](https://vesuvionline.net/en/tickets-online/mount-vesuvius-tickets/mount-vesuvius-visitor-guide)**

## Why is Vesuvius considered a high-risk volcano?

Volcanic risk depends not only on the probability or size of an eruption.

It also depends on the number of people and infrastructure potentially exposed.

Mount Vesuvius rises in one of Europe's most densely populated metropolitan areas.

Towns and cities surround the volcano, and Naples lies only a short distance away.

For this reason Vesuvius represents an important volcanic risk even during a long period of quiescence.

The combination of:

- an active volcano;
- potentially explosive eruptions;
- high population density;
- extensive urban development;

makes continuous monitoring and emergency planning essential.

## Vesuvius and the AD 79 eruption

The most famous eruption occurred in **AD 79**, when Pompeii, Herculaneum and other Roman settlements were destroyed or buried.

The eruption was described by Pliny the Younger in letters written to the historian Tacitus.

His account has become so important to volcanology that the term **Plinian eruption** is now used for powerful explosive eruptions characterized by a high eruption column.

**[Read the letter of Pliny the Younger to Tacitus](https://vesuvionline.net/en/history/letter-of-pliny-the-younger-to-tacitus)**

## The last eruption in 1944

Vesuvius remained frequently active between the seventeenth century and 1944.

Its last eruption began in March 1944 during the Second World War.

The event included lava flows, explosive activity and ash fall.

After this eruption, the volcano entered the quiescent phase that continues today.

## Frequently Asked Questions

### Is Mount Vesuvius active?

Yes. It is an active volcano currently in a state of quiescence.

### What is the current alert level?

At the time of this update, the alert level is **green**, the ordinary base level.

### Is an eruption imminent?

Current monitoring does not indicate an imminent eruption.

### When will Mount Vesuvius erupt again?

Nobody can give a reliable date. Vesuvius may erupt again in the future, but volcanology cannot predict an exact date years in advance.

### Would scientists know before an eruption?

A future reactivation would be expected to produce changes in monitored parameters, but the amount of warning and the evolution of the unrest cannot be known in advance with certainty.

### What do scientists monitor?

They monitor earthquakes, ground deformation, gases, temperatures and other geophysical and geochemical parameters.

### Who monitors Mount Vesuvius?

Monitoring is carried out by the **INGV – Osservatorio Vesuviano**.

### When did Vesuvius last erupt?

The most recent eruption occurred in March 1944.

### What is the Red Zone?

It is the area around Vesuvius where preventive evacuation would be required if an alarm were declared.

### How many municipalities are in the Red Zone?

The current planning area includes all or parts of 25 municipalities in the provinces of Naples and Salerno.

### What is the Yellow Zone?

It is the wider area that could be significantly affected by volcanic ash fall.

### Is Naples in the Red Zone?

Most of Naples is outside the Red Zone, although parts of three eastern districts are included in the national planning area. Naples and many surrounding municipalities are also affected by the wider Yellow Zone planning.

### Can tourists visit Mount Vesuvius now?

Yes, under normal visitor conditions. Great Cone access remains subject to National Park opening hours, weather and safety regulations.

## An active volcano under constant observation

Mount Vesuvius remains an active volcano and another eruption is possible in the future.

The correct approach is neither to underestimate the volcanic risk nor to describe an eruption as imminent when monitoring data do not support that conclusion.

Today Vesuvius is one of the most closely monitored volcanoes in Italy, with continuous scientific surveillance and a national Civil Protection emergency plan.

**[Learn more about the volcano Vesuvius](https://vesuvionline.net/en/geo-en/the-volcano-vesuvius)**

   Details   Written by: vesuvionline    Last Updated: 07 August 2026

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